Ruth Negga and Joel Edgerton in “Loving”
With Sundance and Cannes behind us and the fall festivals in progress, the Oscar race is under way. Distributors are in full campaign mode for the 2016-17 awards season.
READ MORE: 2017 Oscar Predictions
After earning strong reviews, a standing ovation and the two top awards at the Sundance Film Festival, Nate Parker’s “The Birth of A Nation” was an early frontrunner for Best Picture. The Academy not only loves a well-told true story (see “Spotlight,” “Argo” and “12 Years A Slave”), but last year’s diversity controversy promised to shine an even greater light on “Nation” this year. The film will be released via Fox Searchlight, which has notched 13 Best Picture nominations in the past 12 years, more than any other company. They proved victorious with “Birdman” two years ago and were positioning “Nation” as their top contender this fall. But Parker is dogged by a college rape scandal that keeps coming up as he tries to promote his movie. Searchlight plowed ahead with a planned Toronto press junket ahead of an October 7th commercial release. But Oscar prospects are dim.
“The Birth of a Nation”
Fox Searchlight
Don’t count out one of the most popular and well-reviewed films of the year, Jon Favreau’s Rudyard Kipling adaptation “The Jungle Book” (Disney). Like Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi,” the family film could emerge as a strong contender with support from all the crafts.
Another strong candidate is Focus Features’ “Loving,” the heart-tugging Jeff Nichols drama that emerged from this year’s Cannes Film Festival. “Loving” is a well-told true story boasting two acting contenders (Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga) that opens up discussions on America’s fraught relationship with race. “Loving” went to Toronto along with Focus Features’ well-received “A Monster Calls,” a four-hankie mother-son fantasy drama from Spanish filmmaker J.A. Bayona (“The Impossible”) starring “Theory of Everything” nominee Felicity Jones, a Supporting Actress candidate.
“Manchester By The Sea”
The fall fests proved a crucible for a raft of other critics’ faves. Will Amazon Studios do better in the Oscar derby than rival Netflix did last year? They’re hoping so by adopting a more theatrically friendly approach to Kenneth Lonergan’s emotionally devastating Sundance drama “Manchester By the Sea” (Roadside Attractions), starring acting contenders Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams.
Telluride broke out Damien Chazelle’s audacious musical romance “La La Land,” starring Best Actress contender Emma Stone, as well as Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age ensemble drama “Moonlight” (A24), featuring Supporting Actor hopeful Mahershala Ali (“House of Cards”). TFF launched Clint Eastwood’s airplane rescue drama “Sully,” starring well-reviewed Tom Hanks (Warner Bros.), and Denis Villeneuve’s brainy sci-fi thriller “Arrival” (Paramount), starring Telluride tributee and likely Best Actress contender Amy Adams, who also stars in Tom Ford’s Venice/TIFF entry “Nocturnal Animals,” which can’t hurt.
“La La Land”
COURTESY OF SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT
Also playing well in Toronto was Weinstein Co’s Oscar pick for this year, Garth Davis’s tearjerker “Lion,” starring Dev Patel in a true story about a man who lost his family when he was five years old and uses Google Earth to try and find them again. Mira Nair’s “Queen of Katwe” (Disney, September 30) also snagged strong reaction at TIFF, especially for Lupita Nyong’o as a fierce mother trying to help her chess-playing daughter escape the slums of Kampala.
New York Film Festival opened with Ava DuVernay’s well-reviewed, powerful documentary “13th,” and will debut Ang Lee’s Iraq war era “Billy Lynn’s Long Half Time Walk” as well as Mike Mills’ affectionate 1979 Santa Barbara family drama, “20th Century Women,” starring Annette Bening as a single mom raising her teen son in a boarding house.
Still to arrive on the scene are new films from award favorites such as Martin Scorsese (“Silence”), Warren Beatty (“Rules Don’t Apply”), Scott Rudin and Denzel Washington (“Fences”) and more, also likely to factor into the race.
Remember, in order to be frontrunner we have to seen the film.
“Queen of Katwe”
Disney
Frontrunners:
“Arrival” (Paramount)
“La La Land” (Lionsgate)
“Manchester by the Sea” (Amazon, Roadside Attractions)
“Moonlight” (A24)
“Sully” (Warner Bros.)
Contenders:
“20th Century Women” (A24)
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (Sony)
“Fences” (Paramount)
“The Jungle Book” (Disney)
“Lion” (Weinstein Co.)
“Loving” (Focus Features)
“A Monster Calls” (Focus Features)
“Rules Don’t Apply” (New Regency/Fox)
“Silence” (Paramount)
Long Shots:
“Allied” (Paramount)
“The Birth of a Nation” (Fox Searchlight)
“Elle” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Eye in the Sky” (Bleecker Street)
“The Founder” (Weinstein Co.)
“Hell or High Water” (CBS Films)
“Maggie’s Plan” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nocturnal Animals” (Focus Features)
“Queen of Katwe”(Disney)
“Passengers” (Sony)
“Patriot’s Day” (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
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Check Out More Oscar Races:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Animated Feature
“The Birth of a Nation”
“Manchester By The Sea”
“La La Land”
“Queen of Katwe”